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TEDxNUS - Uncertainty and how we can prepare for it - Anil Gaba

Anil Gaba speaks about risk management and his interest in doing away with the management aspect. He professes his love for gambling and other financial loss making schemes. The financial crisis of recent years is brought into perspective with other crisises and trends, debunking critic's views of these occurrences being "Black Swans". Mismanagement of risk, according to Anil Gaba is because of the "Illusion of Control", where one believes he has control over certain events and underestimates the element of chance. To counter this, the combination of two principles - forecasting and psychology - go to some length to explain certain trends. But Anil Gaba contends that forecasting and theoretical models fail miserably in real life and the "naive" models happen to be much more applicable. He showcases this through various hilarious examples such as the over-estimation of the benefits of medicine and the unrestrained forecasting of the financial markets.
Length: 19:29

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