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Game Theory 101: Baseball--Breaking Balls with a Runner on Third

Paper downloadable here: http://wjspaniel.wordpress.com/about/ Abstract: Whenever a pitcher throws a breaking ball with a runner on third base, he risks having the ball go past the catcher and allowing the runner to score. In this article, I analyze the optimal behavior of the players in such a scenario. With decent control and competent catchers, the pitcher throws breaking balls at the same rate he would if the bases were empty. Meanwhile, the batter seemingly displays a type of risk adversity by anticipating fastballs more frequently, yet he does guess the correct pitch more frequently with a runner on third. Paper under review at The Baseball Research Journal (SABR).
Length: 07:57

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