Rethinking Red and Blue
In 2000, the poorest voters in Mississippi (50th in nation in per capita income), Ohio (middle of the pack) and Connecticut (1st in PCI) were equally likely to vote for George W. Bush. The richest residents of the same three states diverged sharply, with more than ? of wealthy Mississippians voting Republican, 60 percent in Ohio and about half in Connecticut. This pattern held in 2004. Dr. Andrew Gelman, co-author of Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State has analyzed voting patterns and found that the media have missed, and misstated, the real correlations between voting and income level. It turns out the mythical lower-income Values Voter who puts God, guns and gays before economic concerns is just that. The Republican edge in poorer states has little to do with the cultural concerns of lower-income voters, and far more to do with the intensity of GOP support among the wealthy in these states. In other words, were not in Thomas Franks Kansas any more. Please join us to hear a revealing analysis of how and where income and other demographic trends actually affect voting patterns, and what it all means for the 2008 election. Following a presentation of Dr. Gelmans findings, we will hear from David Frum, former speechwriter for President George W. Bush and author of a recent New York Times Magazine article on The Vanishing Republican Voter.